Streamlined, LLM-Enhanced Question Discovery. Created by christian on Feb 29, 2024 • Edited on Mar 5, 2024. 19. 9 comments. Metaculus features over 9,000 questions spanning hundreds of distinct topics. Today we’re launching a completely redesigned and LLM-augmented framework for categorizing forecast questions so …If humans go extinct due to an AI catastrophe before the year 2300, then question will resolve on the date during which the last biological human dies. For the purpose of this question, death is defined as a state during which the heart has stopped beating for at least 24 hours. AI is said to have caused human extinction …This question does not require sentencing to be completed, only a felony conviction is required. Background Info. Former President Donald Trump has been charged with 91 felony counts in four separate cases. The earliest of these, the federal election fraud trial, is scheduled to go to trial in March 2024. The trial most likely to go to court ...Today we're excited to launch a new question type on Metaculus: Multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election. For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must equal 100% to be a valid forecast.Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ...From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. …On May 31st, 2022, prominent deep learning skeptic and NYU professor emeritus Gary Marcus challenged Elon Musk to a bet on AGI by the end of 2029. His proposed bet consisted of 5 AI achievements, of which he predicted no more than 2 would come to pass before 2030. Each of these five predictions have been recorded and …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.Mar 3, 2023 · The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest note McBride declined to say how much Iridium is paying Relativity per launch, but she said Iridium got a “good price” that was lower then Relativity’s advertised launch price of $12 million per Terran 1 mission. The max advertised payload for the Terran 1 is 1,250 kg to LEO; the list price of $12m per launch gives …Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity.On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis … Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. NBC News: The RNC is weighing a resolution to declare Trump its 'presumptive' nominee. The Republican National Committee could move next week to declare former President Donald Trump the “presumptive 2024 nominee” for the party’s presidential nomination. A draft resolution anointing Trump and obtained by NBC …The project must be a single, unified one, under one directorship, not e.g. a general R&D funding program distributed across many groups. Funding will be in 2020 USD using US CPI index inflation, and PPP-adjusted. Note that the budgets of the Apollo and Manhattan projects were of order USD $80B. There is no condition on total … Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions.Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By … Leaderboards. Learn more about Metaculus Medals. Duration: Time Period: Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Tournaments. Help the global community model, understand, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Prove your forecasting abilities, support effective policy and decision-making, and win cash prizes. Learn how tournaments are scored. Reach out to discuss launching a tournament on what’s important to you.As part of our ongoing celebration of achieving 1 million predictions on Metaculus, we’re hosting a series of talks this week on topics of forecasting and data science. The talks are all open to the public and we hope to see you at some (or all!) of these. Talks are linked and recordings are made available in this discussion post. Explore state-by-state Metaculus forecasts for the 2024 US presidential election in this experimental interactive map Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing … The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest note Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. This question will resolve as Yes if, at any point within 3 years after the beginning of the invasion, the entire main island of Taiwan is under de facto control of the People's Republic of China. For the purposes of this question, China will be considered to "launch a full-scale invasion" if the event is described as such by both The New …Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for … The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. About Metaculus. Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. By bringing together an international community and keeping score for thousands of forecasters, Metaculus is able to deliver machine learning-optimized aggregate … Metaculus is an American reputation-based, massive online prediction solicitation and aggregation engine. One of the focuses of Metaculus is predicting the timing, nature and impact of scientific and technological advances and breakthroughs. for any period of at least 168 hours ending before January 1, 2024. via physical destruction, obstruction, or damage from any source. For the purposes of this question, physical damage or obstruction of the immediate approaches to the bridge, such that it is effectively impassable to through traffic, is considered to "knock out" …FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …AI Forecasts. Forgot Password? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective … The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact, Create a Question. Only registered users can create new questions. Sign in or register a new account now! Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. This year, Metaculus is the host institution for writer Scott Alexander's annual forecasting-tradition-turned-tournament. Beat the crowd of 1000+ forecasters all contributing to a clearer picture of 2024, and you'll win forecasting glory and a share of the $2.5k prize pool! Predict before Monday, January 22nd: For this …This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. …Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the general election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, …Resolution will be according to the source linked above, for the first estimate of the 2025 GDP (PPP) of the World published by the World Bank. This will likely be published in 2026. GDP should be measured in constant 2017 international $, so that estimates can be taken directly from the world bank.Aug 1, 2023 · On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis of LK-99. Metaculus is a platform for forecasting future events and testing your accuracy. Join the Economist 2022 Tournament and compete with other forecasters on questions related to economics, politics, and society. Earn points, prizes, and recognition for your predictions.provided an information source on Jan 26, 2024, 6:01 PM. Taking a look at polling in the battleground states: Arizona: won by Biden by 0.3 points in 2020. Currently Trump +4.8. Nevada: won by Biden by 2.39 points in 2020. Currently Trump +5.4. Wisconsin: won by Biden by 0.63 points in 2020. Currently tied.The 16th President and Vice President election of the Republic of China is scheduled to be held in Taiwan in early 2024. Incumbent President Tsai Ing-wen of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), who was reelected in 2020, is ineligible to seek a third term. The winner of the 2024 presidential election is scheduled to be inaugurated on 20 May ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Currently the Metaculus community prediction is 61% that they will hold additional territory on the 1 st of January 2024. Given what we’ve learnt about how Russian capabilities have been overestimated to date, this, again, seems high to me (I …For example this study finds 50% of AI researchers accord a 50% probability to "High level machine intelligence" (HLMI) by 2040, while 20% say that 50% probability will not be reached until 2100 or later. Similarly, this survey finds an aggregated probability distribution with a 25%-75% confidence interval (comparable to Metaculus sliders below ...We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a …Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if the winner of 2024 United States presidential election wins a plurality of votes. If the winner does not win a plurality of votes it will resolve as No. It will resolve on the date Congress certifies the vote or selects the president in the event of no candidate receiving a majority. The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact, Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core …Sep 12, 2022 · Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the 7-digit ... Donald Trump has been officially removed or blocked from the general election ballot of any U.S. state for a federal office (President, Senate, House of Representatives) under the grounds of Section 3 of the 14th Amendment. The removal or block is confirmed through official state government announcements, court decisions, …IJW. commented on Aug 30, 2023, 6:43 AM. If China wanted to make a move on Taiwan, they would probably do it late in a second Biden term in 2027-2028. Since he would be decrepit of old age by then. With build up stress of 2 terms of being president. And probably low on weapons stockpiles due to Ukraine.Metaculus is as much a record/evaluation of past predictions as it is a tracker of current information on a subject. Exceptions to this rule can be made in some scenarios, such as tracking COVID-19 deaths while we’re 1 year into the pandemic (self-explanatory), or if a question needs to be written/opened quickly, such as an outbreak of ...Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not …That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in …Mar 31, 2022 · In the early days of AI safety, people used to think of AI progress primarily in terms of self-improving exponentially growing systems that would ultimately result in a singularity (see e.g. superintelligence or MIRI ). One assumption of this view is that, after some point in time, capabilities improve very rapidly, i.e. TAI comes with a bang. 2028 (2025 – 2030) Feb 29, 2024, 12:06 PM. Reuters: Nvidia CEO says AI could pass human tests in five years. Nvidia Chief Executive Jensen Huang on Friday said that artificial general intelligence could - by some definitions - arrive in as little as five years. Huang, who heads the world's leading maker of artificial intelligence chips used ... This question will resolve as Yes if the next Russian leader following Vladimir Putin expresses their disapproval of the February 2022 invasion of ukraine, in word or deed, by doing any of these: Publicly stating that the Putin's decision to invade Ukraine was a mistake (or a crime). Ordering a withdrawal of the Russian forces from the majority ...FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit.Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core … The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. What is Metaculus? Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine that brings together a global reasoning community and keeps score for …Learn how Metaculus calculates scores for its forecasting questions using proper scoring rules based on the log score. Find out what are the Baseline, …The science. Online prediction markets are an extension and specific use of the “efficient markets hypothesis” in investing, in which everyone’s …Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. … How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance. From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Robert de Neufville is a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, a Good Judgment superforecaster, and the former Director of Communications of the Global Catastrophic Risk Institute.He writes about forecasting in Telling the Future.. The …meticulous: [adjective] marked by extreme or excessive care in the consideration or treatment of details.Community Insights Reveal Forecasts' Key Drivers. Forecast questions sometimes feature hundreds of comments offering analyses, rationales, arguments, and evidence.On July 22, 2023 a pre-print called "The First Room-Temperature Ambient-Pressure Superconductor" was posted on arXiv in which the authors claim to have synthesized a material (termed LK-99) that exhibits superconducting properties at room temperature and ambient pressure. There is an accompanying pre-print on the synthesis …Mehmet Cengiz Öz, born June 11, 1960, known professionally as Dr. Oz, is a Turkish–American television personality, author, and retired surgeon, who is the Republican nominee for the 2022 U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. The primary elections for this race were held on May 17, 2022, with Lieutenant Governor John …Background Info. Super Bowl LVIII is the 58th Super Bowl that decides the league champion for the 2023 NFL season. Defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs will play the San Francisco 49ers in a rematch of Super Bowl LIV (which the Chiefs also won) on 11 February 2024 at Allegiant Stadium in Paradise, Nevada.In the AI Progress Essay Contest, we open the floor for investigations of predictions regarding the future of AI, especially as it relates to the prospects, timing and impacts of potentially transformative advanced AI systems. Our aim is for systematic thinkers to engage with the wealth of AI forecasts that Metaculus has built up over the years.It also resolves positively if: A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.The Metaculus community currently thinks that quantum computers will factor the first previously unfactored RSA number in around 2046: Breaking 256 bit ECC is a problem that would require roughly the same amount of quantum computing technology and hardware, so the forecast on the following question should not be too different unless we …Today we're excited to launch a new question type on Metaculus: Multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election. For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must equal 100% to be a valid forecast.Note that the data in the link is normalised relative to the 1951-1980 baseline, on which 1880 stands at -0.2. Therefore, the value we are trying to predict is the value in the link at 2100 + 0.2. It is likely, though, that the link will no longer be active in a few decades, so a different dataset may have to be used anyway.Mcgoverns, Pro star rental, Asheville tourists, Vince neil, Ron davis radiator, Dallas area transit, Brielle orthopedics, Grand theater in d'iberville, Dr claud anderson, The wharf amphitheater, Frenchys rockaway, Auto addict, Goldilocks goods, Church of nazarene near me
Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. . Chairs for affairs
lehman center for the performing artsSummary. To summarize, i would guesstimate that it will take between ~0 to 4 years from a weak AGI to superintelligence. It's reasonable to assume that after the first announcement of a weak AGI, humanity will have at most 4 years to prevent the birth of a rogue superintelligence. — edited by tryingToPredictFuture.Tournaments. Help the global community model, understand, and navigate the world’s most important and complex challenges. Prove your forecasting abilities, support effective policy and decision-making, and win cash prizes. Learn how tournaments are scored. Reach out to discuss launching a tournament on what’s important to you.The Metaculus community expects this to happen in the USA sometime in early 2022, probably January, February, or March (median: 10 February). Given the Metaculus community's expected % per-day growth rate of Omicron and how long it has taken for previous variants to take off, I largely agree …Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can ...The losing candidate states that they consider the election result "fraudulent" or "rigged", or some very close synonym of those words, as determined by consensus in the comment section of this question. The losing candidate must make this claim before the scheduled inauguration. If there is a dispute as to whether the candidate did indeed say ...Metaculus General Information Description. Developer of a forecasting technology platform designed to generate predictions about future real-world events. The company's platform provides predictions of the probability of future events in systems that can be accurately modeled mathematically or numerically using theoretical constructs, helping clients …Metaculus is a forecasting technology platform that optimally aggregates quantitative predictions of future events. Research shows that with the right incentives and feedback, groups of people can ...As part of our ongoing celebration of achieving 1 million predictions on Metaculus, we’re hosting a series of talks this week on topics of forecasting and data science. The talks are all open to the public and we hope to see you at some (or all!) of these. Talks are linked and recordings are made available in this discussion post.For the purposes of this question, US involvement will be understood as either (1) any US military personnel directly planting explosives on Nord Stream or (2) a US government entity directing a foreign party to do so. The results of the investigation must be made public and confirmed by a credible media source for this question to resolve as Yes.FiveThirtyEight journalist Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux estimated in December 2021 that 55-65% of Americans fall in the middle, favoring various degrees of access to abortion with restrictions. Gallup has found in polling consistently since 1989 more Americans support Roe v Wade than wish to overturn it. In October …Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. …Feb 10, 2021 · Ragnarök Series. You can now see an excellent visualization of global catastrophic risks estimates produced in the Ragnarök series here. It’s dangerous to be alive and risks are everywhere. But not all risks are created equally. Luckily, the Ragnarök Question Series will bring essential clarity to your evaluation of the risks facing humanity. A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.Will Israel expand its ground invasion to the city of Rafah on or before the first day of Ramadan (before March 12, 2024)? Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Telecommunications technology (41) Weapons Technology (93) The Economist 2021 (25) The Economist 2022 (21) Ukraine (371) Ukraine Updates (54) A complete list of Metaculus question categories. The Doomsday Clock is a symbolic representation of the threat of a man-made global catastrophe. Maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, the clock was first introduced in 1947, and its original setting was "seven minutes to midnight." The closer the clock is to midnight, the closer the world is to a global catastrophe, in the opinion of ...How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. The Metaculus Journal publishes essays on topics in science, mathematics, technology, policy, and politics—all fortified by testable predictions. Forecasting Asset Prices. There are many questions on Metaculus about the behavior of asset prices on financial markets. Some of these questions can be quite difficult to answer using intuitive judgment. As an example, take this question (on which the community forecast may need some refreshing as of the time of publication of this notebook ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ...Sep 12, 2022 · Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the 7-digit ... The Metaculus community expects this to happen in the USA sometime in early 2022, probably January, February, or March (median: 10 February). Given the Metaculus community's expected % per-day growth rate of Omicron and how long it has taken for previous variants to take off, I largely agree …Mar 15, 2023 · If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4. Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. Currently the Metaculus community prediction is 61% that they will hold additional territory on the 1 st of January 2024. Given what we’ve learnt about how Russian capabilities have been overestimated to date, this, again, seems high to me (I …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …Metaculus Journal The Doomsday Clock , which holds at 100 seconds to midnight as of today, suggests the world has never been closer to a catastrophe involving nuclear weapons. But another advocacy group has said it’s “only a matter of time” until some of the world’s most powerful countries agree to make them illegal.Metaculus has developed its own style and norms for writing and submitting questions. Heeding these best-practices will be appreciated by Metaculus forecasters and Moderators alike. Questions which don't follow these best-practices may be rejected. Write in a neutral and objective tone.From the Metaculus Journal series 'Shared Vision: Pro Forecaster Essays on Predicting the Future Better' Ryan Beck is Metaculus's Forecasting Program Coordinator, has predicted as a Metaculus Pro Forecaster, and is an INFER pro, where he currently ranks 5th on the all time forecasting leaderboard. … Tutorial 1: Basics. Welcome to the Metaculus Tutorials! These are a set of interactive exercises designed to get you up and running in predicting the future as accurately as possible. You can do as much or as little as you like. Along with valuable understanding, you'll also get points and achievements for completing the tutorial. Metaculus is ... The transition from the first phase to the second phase took ∼1000 years, much less than the doubling time of 100,000 years characterizing this phase, and the transition from the second phase to the third took on the order of ∼200 years, still smaller than the 1000 years of doubling time typical of the second phase.Metaculus uses a reputation-based system for forecasting. The better you are at forecasting the "louder" your voice is on future forecasts. If you look at their track record, they consistently beat individual expert forecasts. One thing that stops it from following the hype bandwagon is that the further you guess outside the median the higher ...Resolution Criteria. This question will resolve as Yes if prominent, highly respected scientific organizations announce that humans have discovered unambiguous evidence of current or past life on Mars, independent of life that was carried from Earth to Mars via human-designed missions. If this has not happened before January 1, 2050, this ...May 7, 2022 · Jgalt. provided an information source on Mar 21, 2022, 1:10 PM. CNBC: Elon Musk says SpaceX will hopefully launch first Starship orbital flight in May. “We’ll have 39 flightworthy engines built by next month, then another month to integrate, so hopefully May for orbital flight test,” Musk tweeted in response to CNBC. 3. The Metaculus community helps strengthen human reasoning and coordination with trustworthy forecasts, cogent analysis, careful arguments, and clarifying questions. Our all new leaderboards and medals reward a wider range of contributions to this public-serving epistemic project.Oct 24, 2021 · Generally speaking, Diophantine equations of lower degree are easier to solve than ones of higher degree. Diophantine equations of degree 1 in n variables are of the form a_0 + a_1 X_1 + a_2 X_2 + \ldots + a_n X_n = 0 for some n with the a_i all integers. It turns out these equations can be completely solved using the Extended Euclidean ... How likely is a major escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine in 2021? Join the Metaculus forecasting tournament and test your skills against a global community of experts and enthusiasts. Metaculus is an online platform that harnesses the wisdom of crowds to produce accurate predictions on topics of global importance.The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact,Dec 19, 2023 · This question will resolve as Yes if prior to January 20, 2025, any US court officially rules that Donald J. Trump, the 45th president of the United States, is disqualified from holding the office of President of the United States for any period of time. This disqualification can be either specific to the presidency or general to all federal ... The 2019–20 coronavirus outbreak was designated a pandemic by the WHO on March 11, 2020 [ 1 ]. As of April 19th, more than 2M cases of COVID-19 have been reported in over 180 countries and territories [ 2 ]. Many infections of SARS-CoV-2 (novel coronavirus) will likely go undetected, because of lack of access to testing and the lack of ... Metaculus is a platform for forecasting future events and testing your accuracy. Join the Economist 2022 Tournament and compete with other forecasters on questions related to economics, politics, and society. Earn points, prizes, and recognition for your predictions.The grand prize of $5mn will be awarded to the first publicly-shared AI model to enter an AI-MO approved competition and perform at a standard equivalent to a gold medal in the IMO. There will also be a series of progress prizes, totalling up to $5mn, for publicly-shared AI models that achieve key milestones towards the grand prize.Welcome to the Metaculus Community Guidelines page! This is a good place to get started for all those who are interested in engaging with the Metaculus platform. We greatly value the contributions of our diverse community of forecasters, question authors, and forum participants, and we hope that these guidelines will promote, enhance, and ... Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants. A Million Predictions, and a Hackathon: Metaculus achieved a fantastic milestone, surpassing 1,000,000 predictions over more than 7,000 questions. To celebrate, we hosted our first-ever data science hackathon, giving talented teams and individuals across the globe access to a rich trove of forecasting data.It also resolves positively if: A longevity researcher receives Time's Person of the Year for their work on defeating aging. Otherwise, this question resolves negatively on the 1st of January 2030. In case of positive resolution, this question retroactively closes 1 day before the triggering event.538. This is 28 elections with 14979 electors, of which 17 were faithless (occurring in 11 separate elections). That equates to just under 40% of elections in this period having at least one faithless elector. It also gives a 0.1135% chance of any given elector being faithless. With 538 electors in 2024, it would suggest a 61% chance of at ...Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence of its participants.We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. We may not publish questions that are not a good fit. If your question has not received attention within a week, or is otherwise pressing, you may request review by tagging @moderators in a comment. Invite Co …Metaculus has developed its own style and norms for writing and submitting questions. Heeding these best-practices will be appreciated by Metaculus forecasters and Moderators alike. Questions which don't follow these best-practices may be rejected. Write in a neutral and objective tone.Today we're excited to launch a new question type on Metaculus: Multiple choice questions. Multiple choice questions are designed for topics where exactly one option out of many will occur, like the winner of a presidential election. For this question type, the sum of the probabilities across all options must equal 100% to be a valid forecast.Mar 3, 2023 · The mean Brier score was 0.084 for Metaculus and 0.107 for Manifold. This difference was significant using a paired test. Metaculus was ahead of Manifold on 75% of the questions (48 out of 64). Metaculus, on average had a much higher number of forecasters; All code used for this analysis can be found here. Conflict of interest note Currently the Metaculus community prediction is 61% that they will hold additional territory on the 1 st of January 2024. Given what we’ve learnt about how Russian capabilities have been overestimated to date, this, again, seems high to me (I …Background Info. Sam Bankman-Fried, or SBF, is the founder and former CEO of FTX, a cryptocurrency exchange. As of Saturday November 12th 2022, FTX, and all related FTX projects have erupted in chaos as FTX and FTX US declared bankruptcy, and the leadership of his FTX Future Fund charity resigned, stating: We are now unable to perform our work ...Mar 15, 2023 · If OpenAI does not explicitly refer to a potentially qualifying model as GPT-5, Metaculus may make a determination as to whether the model is generally considered to be the successor to GPT-4 that was previously described as GPT-5. Background Info. On 14 March 2023, OpenAI announced their latest model in the GPT family, GPT-4. In this essay contest, we open the floor for investigations of long-term nuclear risks and what might be done to reduce them. As of November 12, 2021, through the Nuclear Risk Forecasting Tournament and Nuclear Risk Horizons Project, 151 Metaculus users have provided a total of 3503 forecasts on 113 questions.Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence … Pending. This question now needs to be reviewed by Community Moderators. We have high standards for question quality. We also favor questions on our core topic areas or that we otherwise judge valuable. Oct 24, 2021 · Generally speaking, Diophantine equations of lower degree are easier to solve than ones of higher degree. Diophantine equations of degree 1 in n variables are of the form a_0 + a_1 X_1 + a_2 X_2 + \ldots + a_n X_n = 0 for some n with the a_i all integers. It turns out these equations can be completely solved using the Extended Euclidean ... The IMF forecasted in June 2022 that the US would narrowly avoid a recession in 2022 and 2023. IMF's Nigel Chalk said that an economic shock, If large enough, could push the United States into a recession, but it would likely be short and shallow with a modest rise in unemployment. In June 2022, Michael Kiley at the US Federal Reserve made a ... How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ...Jan 31, 2023 · That improvement of the Metaculus community prediction seems to be approximately logarithmic, meaning that doubling the number of forecasters seems to lead to a roughly constant (albeit probably diminishing) relative improvement in performance in terms of Brier Score: Going from 100 to 200 would give you a relative improvement in Brier score ... Metaculus is an online forecasting platform and aggregation engine working to improve human reasoning and coordination on topics of global importance. …The transition from the first phase to the second phase took ∼1000 years, much less than the doubling time of 100,000 years characterizing this phase, and the transition from the second phase to the third took on the order of ∼200 years, still smaller than the 1000 years of doubling time typical of the second phase.Sustainable longevity escape velocity is reached when a country obtains an increased life expectancy averaging at least 1 over a 5 year period. The resolved year is the first year that begins this trend (i.e., if the years X to (X+4) average to ≥1 life expectancy gain per year, then this resolves as X). Positive resolution requires that the ... The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact, Metaculus Journal. In vitro fertilization (IVF) is a fertilization procedure in which ova are removed from a woman and combined with sperm in a laboratory culture, with the resulting embryo then implanted in the woman’s or a surrogate mother's uterus. This assistive reproductive technology has been used successfully since 1978, and its use ... The Cryonics Insitute, founded in 1976, is one of two major cryonics organizations in the United States that cryopreserves people upon their legal deaths. You can find more about them on their about page. A classic critique of cryonics is that the organizations may face bankruptcy, and be forced to thaw their patients. In fact, How well does Metaculus predict the future of AI? In this notebook, you can explore the data and analysis of Metaculus's AI track record, and see how the community performs on various AI-related questions. Learn from the past …Joseph Robinette Biden Jr. is the incumbent US President after winning the 2020 election. He has stated multiple times his intention of running for re-election, particularly if the Republican nominee would be Donald Trump. A March 2022 poll by CNN found 52% of respondents expected Biden not to run for re-election, compared to 29% who predicted ...As part of our ongoing celebration of achieving 1 million predictions on Metaculus, we’re hosting a series of talks this week on topics of forecasting and data science. The talks are all open to the public and we hope to see you at some (or all!) of these. Talks are linked and recordings are made available in this discussion post.This dataset is sourced from high school math competitions, such as the AMC 10, AMC 12, and AIME. State-of-the-art Transformers such as GPT-3 pre-trained only on text perform poorly on problems from the MATH dataset (4). The best performance achieved so far by GPT-3 is an overall accuracy of 6.9%, with less than 8.8% accuracy on any subject.Find other Metaculus news updates on our Medium page.. They Say The First Million Is the Hardest. As I've said before, the Metaculus forecasting platform and global community represent a wholly unique initiative in the epistemic technology landscape — one that's growing steadily! Now the moment has finally arrived — we've crossed the …This will resolve on the basis of the mean R0 that is estimated for the Omicron variant according to the first credible systematic review that estimates this value. Such a systematic review should be peer-reviewed and should incorporate R0 estimates from at least 3 studies. An example is the systematic review by Liu and …Metaculus is a community dedicated to generating accurate predictions about future real-world events by aggregating the collective wisdom, insight, and intelligence …. Black river lodge, Brian j. white, Hair by design, Europa deli, Houston tx airport, Loyola academy wilmette, T.k. kirkland, 4 star trailers, The sandbar, Abc world news tonight with david muir, Austin concordia, Airmed, Sweetandsassy, Bowlocity, Vignon manor farm, Finatics, Bay shore mall, Charleston yeager airport.